Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Powering China's development: The role of renewable energy

As the second largest energy consumer in the world, China's need for secure, affordable, and environmentally sustainable energy for its 1.3 billion people is palpable. In the space of just a few years, China has become a global leader in renewable energy investment and industry, and much more growth is expected, write Eric Martinot and Li Junfeng, authors of a new Worldwatch Institute report.

In June 2004, Germany hosted an international meeting of energy leaders - dubbed 'Renewables 2004' - intended to accelerate the development of renewable energy globally. At that event, China announced an ambitious national commitment, including the goal of obtaining 16% of the country's energy from renewables by 2020. Three-and-a-half years later, China's policy machinery for renewable energy is in high gear and its renewables sector is booming, presenting a picture that is far more diverse, fast-changing, and complex than any of those assembled in 2004 could have imagined.

A comprehensive national law for renewable energy, building on previous policies, was enacted in 2005 and took effect at the start of 2006.Among many other provisions, the law provides a feed-in tariff for biomass power and pricing guidelines (some would say a quasi-feed-in tariff) for wind power. In September 2007, final numbers were announced for a series of individual technology targets by 2020 (see Table 1). That same announcement specified much-anticipated mandatory requirements for China's utilities to produce 3% of their power from non-hydro renewables by 2020, and also meet 8% of their total power capacity from non-hydro renewables.

China has already become a global leader in renewable energy investment and industry, and is poised to hold this lead. Investment in new renewables capacity (excluding large hydropower) exceeded US$12 billion in 2007, second only to Germany. Most of this was small hydro, solar hot water, and wind power, all of which have been booming in recent years.

Investors have flocked to China's solar PV manufacturing industry, which saw billion-dollar IPOs on public markets during 2005-2007, and which became the third largest global producer, behind Japan and Germany. Indeed, the success of China's Suntech is legendary - growing from just 20 employees in 2002 to a market value of $6 billion, making its founder the richest man in China.

Total wind power capacity doubled in 2006 and almost again in 2007, with a number of foreign subsidiary manufacturers and one major Chinese producer capturing most of the market. Along with the US, Germany, Spain, and India, China is now solidly in the top-5 globally in terms of annual wind power market volume. Solar hot water capacity continues to grow at 15%-20% annually, involving more than 1000 manufacturers employing some 150,000 people, and China now accounts for three-quarters of the global market for solar hot water.

China currently gets 8% of its primary energy and 17% of its electricity from renewable sources, mostly large hydropower. Given that domestic energy consumption is expected to almost double by 2020, the government's goal of doubling the renewable energy share to 15% (revised slightly from the 2004 announcement) means that the absolute amount of renewable energy will more than triple. Some experts anticipate that this target could be exceeded, and that the share will keep rising beyond 2020.

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